Commercial terms · 8 min read
Lead time, stage by stage
Production is usually a minority of the elapsed time in a first order. The rest is decisions, and most of them are yours.
When does a 25–35 day lead time actually start?
It starts when the pre-production sample is approved, not when the contract is signed. Before that clock there is a 3–5 day stock sample, 7–15 days for a custom sample and 45–60 days for a new mould, so a buyer who dates the schedule from the deposit will run out of stock. Ask for the first-run lead time and the repeat-order lead time as two separate numbers, and for the on-time delivery record in writing rather than an assurance. The MOQ and lead-time calculator lays the four volumes out in one table.
Which start point does a quoted lead time count from?
A lead time quoted without a start point is not a lead time. The same number can mean elapsed days from deposit, from artwork sign-off, or from sample approval — three dates that can sit weeks apart. Establish the start point before you compare anything, and write it into the contract rather than the email. On this range the production figure is 25–35 days from cleared deposit for a stock configuration, and 15–25 days from artwork approval for private-label work on existing tooling — production days, counted from the factory gate, not delivery days counted to your warehouse.
The second thing to establish is whether the figure is a production lead time or a delivery one. A lead time in China is usually counted from the factory gate, which means it stops before the freight forwarder has the goods — and the month on the water is not in the number you were quoted.
Which production phases can actually be compressed?
| Phase | Elapsed estimate | Who controls the clock |
|---|---|---|
| Quotation | Within 24 hours | Shared — an incomplete brief slows this more than anything |
| Sample dispatch | 3–5 business days | Factory |
| Sample evaluation and approval | Days to several weeks | Buyer — the longest variable in most first orders |
| Production | 25–35 days after approval | Factory |
| OEM on existing tooling | 15–25 days after approval | Factory, once artwork is final |
| New tooling to first article | 45–60 days | Shared — every design revision restarts part of it |
| Inspection and release | 1–3 days | Buyer or third-party inspector |
| Freight | Varies by mode and destination | Freight forwarder |
Two rows in that table are not production. Inspection and release is a sourcing decision with its own arithmetic, and who signs off a lot, and against what has to be agreed before the goods are ready — otherwise the one to three days becomes a week of waiting for an inspector who was never booked.
The scheduling point here is old and still routinely missed: compressing a task that is not on the critical path shortens nothing. [Kerzner, 2017] sets out the critical-path method in exactly these terms, and it is why a rush order only works when the binding step is the one being accelerated.
What does a rush order actually buy you?
Acceleration is possible, and it works by moving your order ahead of somebody else's rather than by making machines faster. That means it has a cost, and it usually draws down goodwill. Our published rush band is 15–20 days on an existing tool with artwork final — shorter than the standard 25–35 because no artwork cycle remains, not because production got quicker.
Two honest warnings. Peak seasons around major holidays compress capacity regardless of what anybody promises, so plan backwards from Chinese New Year rather than forwards from your launch date. And a rush order is the wrong time to be changing anything.
How do you plan backwards from a fixed launch date?
- Fix the shelf date first, then subtract freight, then inspection, then production, then approval.
- Handle sample approval as a phase with an owner inside your business, not as an event that happens.
- Add contingency for the phase you have never done before. For most first-time importers that is customs documentation — see clearing customs cleanly.
- Confirm the quote validity window. Prices reflecting material costs move, and a quote allowed to lapse is a quote you have to re-open.
For a first volume that satisfies the minimum without over-committing, the the four worked volumes sets four volumes side by side, and the full published figures sit alongside it.
What is OTIF, and what number should you hold a supplier to?
A lead time tells you when the first order arrives. OTIF — on-time in-full — tells you what happens on the tenth. It is the share of purchase orders that arrive both by the date promised and with the quantity promised, and it is the single number a replenishment planner actually manages, because a line that is late or short breaks a shelf or a listing regardless of how good the unit is.
- On-time
- The order arrived within the tolerance band written into the purchase order, not within a vaguer promise. Define the band — a day, three days — before you measure, or "on time" means whatever the supplier wants it to mean.
- In-full
- The quantity shipped matched the quantity ordered, with no silent substitution of a different model or colour. A partial fill that you were not told about is a miss even if it arrives early.
- OTIF
- On-time multiplied by in-full, not averaged with it. A line that is 96% on-time and 98% in-full yields a 94% OTIF — the rate at which you receive exactly what you ordered, when you ordered it.
For the published reorder minimum and lead time on the Slow Duo range, see the numbers we commit to in writing. For the inspection that catches a short or wrong fill before it leaves the factory, see the four-stage quality control.
Which delays are yours to control, and which surface too late?
Most late shipments are not production problems. They are inputs that arrived late and were absorbed silently: artwork approved after the moulding slot was booked, a deposit that cleared four days after the order was "placed", a label translation that came back with a claim the destination market does not allow. The factory does not stop counting because the input was late; it re-sequences and tells you at the end.
| Input | When it is needed | What happens if it arrives late |
|---|---|---|
| Artwork approval | Before the carton print run is scheduled | The whole order moves by the print run, not by a day |
| Deposit cleared | Before material is released | Material sits unallocated; the slot is given to another order |
| Label copy and translations | Before packaging is printed | Reprint, or a sticker that carries a compliance statement |
| Barcode and marketplace rules | Before cartons are printed | Reprint of an entire run |
| Final quantity and mix | Before material is purchased | Re-quotation, and a later slot |
The practical control is a date on each input, written into the purchase order rather than implied by the conversation. A factory that knows the artwork lands on the 12th schedules the print run on the 13th; one that is told "soon" schedules it when the file appears, which is the same as not scheduling it.
Which three dates should a buyer track in writing?
Lead time is quoted as a single range, but a launch depends on three dates and they are weeks apart. Buyers who hold only the middle one are the ones who discover a problem when it is already expensive.
- The purchase-order date, which is the day the deposit clears and material is released — not the day the email was sent.
- The ex-factory date, which is what a supplier quotes and what the OTIF number is measured against.
- The on-shelf date, which is the ex-factory date plus freight, customs clearance and inland delivery — and the only date a retail calendar cares about.
The gap between the second and third is where launches slip. Sea freight and clearance together are routinely longer than the production window itself, and they are the part a factory has no control over. Plan the launch from the third date backwards and the second becomes a milestone rather than a promise.
References
- Christopher, M. (2016). Logistics & Supply Chain Management, 5th ed. Harlow: Pearson Education.
- Silver, E. A., Pyke, D. F. & Peterson, R. (1998). Inventory Management and Production Planning and Scheduling, 3rd ed. New York: Wiley.
- Kerzner, H. (2017). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling, 12th ed. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Questions on this guide
How long is production lead time, and how much of it is the sample to bulk lead time?
Production lead time starts when the deposit clears and the pre-production sample is signed, not when you first enquire. On a first order the sample to bulk lead time is usually the longer half: a decorated pre-production sample can take ten to fifteen days on its own, before the line is scheduled at all.
What start date should I put in the contract?
Sample approval, stated explicitly rather than implied, together with what triggers it. "Production within 30 days" without a trigger is unenforceable because the clock never formally starts.
How much buffer should I add?
For a first import, add two to three weeks beyond the arithmetic. Almost all of it gets consumed by documentation and freight rather than by manufacturing.
Can a rush order include custom packaging?
Rarely. Carton printing has its own supplier queues and cannot usually be compressed alongside production. Splitting packaging out is a common cause of a "rush" that is not one.
When does the production clock start?
After sample approval and after the deposit clears — not on the day you send the brief. Everything before that is procurement and approval, and it is usually where a slipped date was actually lost.
What is the most common cause of a slipped date?
Packaging. The product is finished on schedule and waits on a carton print run that was booked late. It is also the easiest to avoid: decide the carton at the same time as the product, or use stock packaging on run one.
Can I compress the timeline by paying more?
Partly. Money moves procurement and freight; it does not shorten a curing step, a burn-in test, or an inspection that has to happen. Ask which segments can be compressed — a supplier who says "all of them" has not read your brief.
Does Chinese New Year affect a quoted lead time?
Yes, for any order that overlaps it. Production stops for the holiday and the weeks either side run below capacity as staff travel. We publish cut-off dates for the following season each autumn: an order confirmed after the cut-off is scheduled into the post-holiday window rather than quoted optimistically.
What is the difference between production time and transit time?
Production is what the factory controls — from confirmation and artwork approval to goods packed and ready. Transit is what the forwarder controls, and it is quoted separately: days by air, weeks by sea. The 25–35 day lead time describes production only; add transit and clearance to reach your warehouse.
What does OTIF mean, and why should it be in my purchase order?
OTIF — on-time in-full — is the share of orders that arrive both by the date promised and with the quantity promised. Put the tolerance band and a short-fill reporting rule into the purchase order, not the relationship, because a line that is late or short breaks a shelf regardless of unit quality. OTIF is the product of the two rates, so it is always the lowest of them.
How does OTIF relate to my reorder minimum?
A low OTIF rate is the reason safety stock and a realistic reorder minimum exist. The reorder minimum we publish alongside the lead time is the floor for repeat orders; OTIF tells you how much buffer to hold above it so a short fill does not become a stockout.
Still open: what can compress a lead time and what cannot — or work four volumes through the timeline.
Half of a late shipment is a week you controlled and did not know you controlled: artwork approval, deposit clearance, sample sign-off. The calculator shows how those weeks compound at four volumes, and the packaging guide covers the one approval that most often slips. If the date is fixed by a retail window, say so in the first message through the page where the brief goes rather than after the deposit.
Where this subject continues
A guide is the argument; the three others are the evidence, the terms and the catalogue. Each column below is chosen for what it shares with this article rather than to fill a slot.